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  • 學術前沿 | 劉建豐等——流向中國的房地產

    文章來源:科研處 作者: 發布時間:2021-07-02 瀏覽次數:10


    Dong, Feng, 劉建豐, Zhiwei Xu, Bo Zhao, Flight to Housing in China》被宏觀經濟學領域頂級期刊Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control接受發表。

    中文關鍵詞:異質性家庭;價值儲藏;房地產政策;宏觀及分配效應;消費風險分擔

    英文關鍵詞:Heterogeneous Households, Store of Value, Housing Policy, Aggregate and Distributional Effects, Consumption Risk Sharing

    中文摘要:文章利用CFPS 2010-2018的微觀數據首次發現不確定性與房價的正相關證據:家庭持久收入沖擊的不確定性增長較快的地區,房地產均價上升也較快。文章在此基礎上構建了一個包含異質性家庭的兩部門(房地產部門、實體經濟部門)的不完全市場一般均衡模型來解釋這一現象。房產作為價值儲藏的手段,可以幫助家庭抵御風險免受流動性約束的限制。增加的不確定性增加了住房需求、抬高了房價,并擠出了實體經濟投資,最終導致產出下降和經濟衰退。他們還定量地分析了政府限購政策對于經濟的一般均衡影響。他們的研究發現這樣的限制措施有效地降低了房價,但居民持有的安全資產變少了,因而削弱了居民對于風險分散的能力。這就要求在制定房地產調控措施的時候同樣應重視房地產市場供給端的調節作用,提高政府的土地供給效率,進一步完善金融市場,特別是基金和債券市場,豐富安全資產的種類,進一步支持實體經濟發展。

     

    英文摘要:We empirically detect the flight to safety vis-a-vis housing in China: Great economic uncertainty causes the prices of housing assets to soar. To stabilize housing prices, China has imposed purchase restrictions on the housing market. We study the aggregate and distributional effects of this housing policy by developing a two-sector model with heterogeneous households. An uncertainty shock generates a countercyclical housing boom by shifting outward households' demand for housing as a store of value. A vibrant housing sector then leads to an economic recession by crowding out resources that could have been allocated to the real sector. Our quantitative analysis suggests that the policy limiting housing purchases effectively curb surging housing prices. However, the policy restricts households' access to housing that can be used to buffer idiosyncratic uncertainties, creating a larger consumption dispersion. Consequently, the housing policy creates a trade-off between macro-level stability and micro-level consumption risk sharing.

    作者簡介:



    劉建豐,上海對外經貿大學金融管理學院講師,碩士研究生導師,上海交通大學安泰經濟與管理學院經濟學博士,已在《經濟研究》、《經濟學季刊》、《金融研究》、《財經研究》、《國際經濟評論》和《財貿經濟》等雜志發表論文10余篇。主要研究領域:宏觀經濟學、中國經濟、貨幣經濟學、財政學和國際金融等。

     


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